AP Decision Notes: What to expect in the April 2 presidential and state primaries

 

WASHINGTON (AP) — Voters in the pivotal swing state of Wisconsin and three Northeastern states will have a chance to indicate their support or opposition to their parties’ presumptive nominees in presidential primaries Tuesday. Wisconsin voters will also decide the fate of two Republican-backed statewide ballot measures that will shape how elections in the state are run and funded.

Farther south, Arkansas and Mississippi voters will return to the polls to decide a handful of legislative seats that were forced to runoffs in primaries held in March.

Although multiple names remain on the presidential ballots in Wisconsin, Connecticut, New York and Rhode Island, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump face no major challengers and already have secured more delegates than they need to win their parties’ nominations at the conventions this summer. Voters in Connecticut and Rhode Island will have the additional option of voting “uncommitted” if they want to register a protest vote against Biden, a Democrat, or Trump, a Republican. Wisconsin voters have a similar option, although it’s called “Uninstructed Delegation” on their ballot.

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 on March 19 after former candidate Nikki Haley had her name removed from the ballot, leaving Trump the only remaining candidate. A Democratic primary there would also have been held Tuesday, but Biden was the only candidate to file for the ballot, so the event was never scheduled. In both cases, the parties awarded all the state’s delegates to Biden and Trump, as they were the only candidates remaining in their contests.

DECISION NOTES

In the presidential race, Biden and Trump are the favorites in their primaries as neither candidate faces a strong challenge. In all four contests, the first indications that they are winning statewide on a level consistent with the overwhelming margins seen in most other contests held this year may be sufficient to determine the statewide winners.

For the Wisconsin constitutional amendments, the fault lines hew closely to traditional partisan lines, with Republican state lawmakers backing the two measures and Democrats in opposition. Thus, the state’s vote history and political demographics will inform the race-calling process.

As for the races in Arkansas and Mississippi, runoffs tend to be lower-turnout events than the initial elections that prompted them. For local races, in which turnout for regularly scheduled elections is already relatively low, this could slow the race-calling process in particularly close contests since determining the outcome could rest on a handful of votes. For example, in Arkansas state House District 63, only 108 votes separated the first- and second-place candidates, out of 1,700 total votes cast.